Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 13.491314 15.725961 18.163505 21.012961 24.245366 27.790936 31.966821
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 9.864715 12.878053 16.489719 21.105335 26.811724 33.597451 42.235552
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.231189 10.444087 14.627408 20.398649 28.067310 37.810509 51.012644
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.495619 8.693342 13.174584 19.782145 29.118592 41.656059 59.540254
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.478373 7.680061 12.465649 19.938014 31.060059 46.700374 69.973073
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.610732 6.687434 11.574093 19.620277 32.178505 50.587233 79.028350
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.202687 6.337567 11.580651 20.606795 35.258840 57.478837 92.869129
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.759332 5.829777 11.231712 20.940466 37.303277 62.927609 104.921326
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.354466 5.305556 10.760003 20.977818 38.824508 67.631182 116.115836
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.020903 4.847844 10.326453 21.001303 40.282083 72.292369 127.512312
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.921059 4.845788 10.731912 22.561809 44.495446 81.712844 147.143546
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.784243 4.736353 10.907900 23.701263 48.044080 90.244881 165.824586
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.620482 4.546453 10.918713 24.570753 51.268327 98.604230 185.035248
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.380797 4.127970 10.395466 24.330020 52.423991 103.490386 198.735244
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.129425 3.618873 9.590771 23.404012 52.165931 105.828054 208.154418
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.933295 3.202727 8.920836 22.662784 52.172964 108.611556 218.503065
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.819160 2.985063 8.679542 22.820905 53.995381 114.875136 235.507748
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.695558 2.705219 8.235779 22.456893 54.684674 119.011212 248.816641
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.654334 2.671800 8.414706 23.563965 58.591898 129.621178 274.844652
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.587223 2.535089 8.296597 23.938086 60.925324 137.256623 295.602727
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.516315 2.364704 8.056830 23.979703 62.516886 143.496352 314.000645
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.454119 2.206689 7.823783 24.005960 64.067869 149.738869 332.728947
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.449151 2.266014 8.237325 25.758810 69.750317 164.847974 369.775491